Posted by Adam Jacobi
Brett McMurphy tells us why the bowls will be hesitant to take Penn State, if Bronco Mendenhall would be a good fit for the Nittany Lions, what he's looking to see at the SMU-Houston game and much more. We also touch on expansion, Oklahoma-Oklahoma State, coaching salaries and Bob Davie's new job.
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Man - This is an incredibly important game for both teams and their chances to play in the first Big Ten Championship, and though at times Michigan does some things on offense that make me shake my head, I'm going to go with the homefield advantage in this one. Though it'll be fun to see Denard Robinson and Taylor Martinez facing off to see who can miss their receivers by more. Pick: Michigan
Man - Here's a list of SEC West teams not named Ole Miss that Dan Mullen has beaten since taking over at Mississippi State: none. So until that changes I'm not picking Mississippi State to even cover. Pick: Arkansas
Man - USC has played in close games all season, which made me want to take the Trojans and the points this week but with Robert Woods' status in question at the moment, I'm not as comfortable with the Trojans in Eugene. So I'm going to roll with Oregon, though I wouldn't be shocked if USC keeps it close or even wins outright. Pick: Oregon

BAYLOR WILL WIN IF: Baylor will have to win this game the same way it does in every game it emerges victorious: by outscoring Oklahoma. This is a team that's ranked 108th in the country in scoring defense, after all, allowing 36 points per game. The good news for Baylor is that it has an offense more than capable of putting up points in a hurry. Of course, taking care of the ball while it has it would help a lot too. In the blowout loss to Oklahoma State the Bears turned the ball over 5 times, and last week against Kansas the Bears turned it over 4 times, forcing Robert Griffin to lead a 21-point comeback in the fourth quarter. The best way to limit turnovers will be to protect Griffin from an Oklahoma defensive line that can get to the quarterback, as it's second in the Big 12 with 34 sacks this season. If Griffin gets time, he can pick apart any secondary.
OKLAHOMA WILL WIN IF: It can overcome the injuries on offense. Normally I'd put Oklahoma's offense on par with Baylor's, but is that still the case now that the Sooners have lost Dominique Whaley and Ryan Broyles in the last two weeks? We can't know for sure because we haven't seen it play without those two yet. Which means that Landry Jones will have to adjust to life without his favorite target and security blanket. Remember, Landry Jones has never played a game as a Sooner in which he didn't have Broyles around to throw to. In the backfield, Roy Finch and Brennan Clay will have to step up to fill in for Whaley and give the Sooners balance on offense. On defense, the Oklahoma defense needs to pressure Griffin and understand that it's likely going to give up points. It just needs to make a few stops each half too. Something it has proven more than capable of doing all season.
IOWA STATE WILL WIN IF: It plays the game of its season. Though don't think that it's not possible, even if it does sound totally crazy. There are a few factors at play here. First of all, this is the last game on Oklahoma State's schedule before Bedlam, and it wouldn't be the first time a football team got caught looking ahead. Second of all, Iowa State was off last weekend, so it has had an extra week to prepare. The question is will that extra week be enough for the Iowa State defense to figure out how to stop the juggernaut that is the Oklahoma State offense. Well, this Cyclones defense isn't terrible. It's only allowing 392.2 yards per game at home this season, but it's also allowed 28 points per game in those contests. It also hasn't faced an offense of this caliber, so Paul Rhoads' team is going to have its hands full.
OKLAHOMA STATE WILL WIN IF: It gets its mind off of Oklahoma and a national championship and focuses on the task at hand. On paper this Cowboys team is simply better than Iowa State and can overmatch it. Pushing things further in Oklahoma State's favor is the turnover battle. We all know that Oklahoma State has forced more turnovers (34) than any team in the country. Well, do you know which team in the Big 12 has turned the ball over the most? Yep, Iowa State, which has 23 turnovers, or 2.56 turnovers per game. If that continues on Saturday in Ames then Oklahoma State shouldn't have much trouble with the Cyclones.