Posted by Jerry Hinnen

Over the past several days, more than one college football analyst has discussed a scenario which should make everyone involved with the BCS hang their head: the possibility of an undefeated Boise State not only not making the BCS national title game, but being shut out of the BCS entirely and heading off to play (or "obliterate," delete as applicable) Cal in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl. As CBSSports.com's own Dennis Dodd has explained, with TCU poised to take the single automatic bid allotted to non-AQ teams, the Sugar Bowl suffering from "SEC power vs. small-conference upstart" fatigue, and the Orange Bowl potentially unwilling to put together a rematch between likely ACC champion Virginia Tech and the Broncos, every BCS at-large bid could easily wind up doled to teams other than Boise. It's true.

But that doesn't mean it's destined to happen, or even likely. For instance, CBS's Jerry Palm says it's not even a given that the Horned Frogs will wind up ahead of Boise in the BCS standings when all is said and done. But even assuming TCU gets the nod at No. 3, here's five somewhat reasonable scenarios (i.e. not "New Mexico beats the Frogs in the upset of the millennium"), ranked from most to least likely, which would result in the Broncos getting their second BCS berth in as many years:

1. The Sugar or the Orange extend an invite. There's reason to think the Sugar and the Orange won't want to take a flyer on the Broncos, but there's plenty of reasons to think they will, too. Boise has become such a polarizing fixture on the college football scene that they're capable of bringing a great deal of attention and excellent TV ratings with them. The Broncos haven't faced an SEC team since Georgia in 2005, and it's fair to assume plenty of fans would tune in to see the nation's most respected conference and most recognizable Cinderella go toe-to-toe. (If the Sugar gets to invite local favorite LSU as the Broncos' opponent, attendance won't be an issue.) The Orange might be nonplussed at the Hokie-Bronco rematch, but selecting last, they also might not have many palatable options; assuming Nebraska wins in the Big 12 and the Sugar takes a leftover Big Ten team (preventing the Orange from taking a third Big Ten team), the only serious candidates will be either a team like Oklahoma State or Missouri or that won't bring much more than Boise in terms of profile, TV attention, fan attendance, etc., or an Oklahoma team that won't come close to matching Boise's record of achievement this year.

2. The old switcheroo? After consultation with the rest of the CBS College Football Blog team, we're still not entirely sure what this provision in the BCS selection process bylaws means exactly (emphasis added):

5. After completion of the selection process as described in Paragraph Nos. 1-4, the conferences and Notre Dame may, but are not required to, adjust the pairings taking into consideration the following:

  A. whether the same team will be playing in the same bowl game for two consecutive years;
  B. whether two teams that played against one another in the regular season will be paired against one another in a bowl game;
  C. whether the same two teams will play against each other in a bowl game for two consecutive years; and
  D. whether alternative pairings may have greater or lesser appeal to college football fans as measured by expected ticket sales for the bowls and by expected television interest, and the consequent financial impact on ESPN and the bowls.

The pairings may not be altered by removing the Big Ten Champion or Pac-10 champion from the Rose Bowl.

But especially regarding that final caveat as it pertains to the Rose, it sounds like the BCS could play musical chairs with some of its bowl assignments if it means squeezing out from underneath a Virginia Tech-Boise State rematch. If the Sugar decides it doesn't want Boise but could deal with the Hokies, and the Orange wants Boise but doesn't want the rematch, could the bowls swap into, say, an LSU vs. Virginia Tech matchup in the Sugar and a Boise-Ohio State blockbuster in the Orange? Don't hold us to this, but reading the above, it might be a possibility.

3. A Virginia Tech loss in the ACC championship game. It's hard to see the Hokies not making it to Charlotte, but if someone other than Tech wins the conference title (the Orange would no doubt like Florida State, please-and-thank-you), inviting Boise would seem to be a no-brainer.

4. Wisconsin doesn't go to Pasadena. One of the Broncos' biggest rivals for at-large attention is Ohio State, who brings with them a huge fanbase, potentially an 11-1 record, a ton of media attention, etc. If Wisconsin falls out of the scrum at the top of the Big Ten (either by, say, a loss at Michigan or a tiebreak loss to Michigan State), that would open the door for either the Buckeyes or Spartans to go back to Pasadena ... and possibly for the Sugar to take Boise over a Badger team that doesn't pull nearly as much weight as the Buckeyes (though our resident bowl projections expert disagrees, I should note).

5. SEC chaos. It's not likely at all, but it's possible enough carnage goes on in the SEC (Auburn losing to Georgia and Alabama, LSU losing to Arkansas, the SEC East winner springing an upset in the championship game, even Cam Newton becoming suspended would help) that the conference doesn't produce a worthy BCS at-large team. That could open up a hole for Boise somewhere.

Put all of these possibilities together, and you can't guarantee that Boise will make one of the BCS games ... but it seems likely enough that something will happen in their favor that they don't have to lose sleep worrying about Cal. Not yet, anyway.

Posted by Tom Fornelli

1. There really is no order in the Big 12.   The Big East and the ACC have caught a lot of flak this season for the overall lack of quality throughout their conferences, but the further we get into the Big 12 season, the more I wonder how different the Big 12 is.  Think about it, Texas has lost to UCLA, Iowa State, Baylor and now Kansas State this season.  The same Baylor team that beat Texas then went and got destroyed by Oklahoma State, who suffered its only loss to Nebraska, who suffered its only loss to Texas.  It's an insane circle that I just can't wrap my head around right now.

2. Nebraska is going to the title game.   With a narrow win against Iowa State on Saturday, and a Missouri loss against Texas Tech, the Cornhuskers are pretty much assured of winning the Big 12 North.  Nebraska already has a one-game lead on Mizzou in the standings, and with the tiebreaker from beating the Tigers last week, it's really a two-game lead.  Which means that Nebraska has to lose at least two of it's last three, and with teams like Kansas and Colorado remaining on the schedule, I don't think it's going to happen.

3. Bill Snyder thinks throwing is for wimps. Kansas State manhandled Texas on Saturday night, winning by a final of 39-14.  They had nine passing yards in the game.  Seriously, only nine.  The score was 31-0 Wildcats before Collin Klein even bothered completing his first pass of the game.  That's how bad Texas is this season.  Even when it knows what its opponent is going to do, the Longhorns can't stop it.

4. Oklahoma State has the edge in the South.   Talk about a perfect day for the Cowboys.  Not only do they rock Baylor's world in the morning, but get to return home in time to see Oklahoma lose to Texas A&M.   This means that Oklahoma State is the only team in the South with one loss, and it's already beaten two of the three teams beneath it with three losses.  So, essentially, the final game of the season against Oklahoma will probably settle who gets to face Nebraska in Dallas.

5. There is no lead Colorado cannot blow.   You know, Dan Hawkins probably knows he's going to get fired, but until Saturday he thought he'd make it through the season at least.  That may no longer be the case.  Colorado had a 45-17 lead on Kansas in the fourth quarter on Saturday.  They lost the game 52-45.  I repeat, the Buffs blew a 45-17 lead in the fourth quarter as Kansas scored a school-record 35 points in the final frame.  If Dan Hawkins is still Colorado's head coach on Monday it'll be the biggest upset of the season.

Posted by College Football Blog staff

Every season, every month, every week, there are several outcomes and achievements that, frankly, nobody operating within reason would ever predict. Who could have predicted Nebraska would beat Florida for the 1995 title by 38 points, or that Boise State would pull off three late trick plays to knock off Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, or that Baylor would ride a huge performance by Robert Griffin to upset Texas OH WAIT JERRY HINNEN NAILED THAT. We're going to try capture that lightning in a bottle by making similarly absurd predictions every week. Are they at all likely to come true? No. Do we even believe the words we're writing? No. But if we make even one correct call on these, we will never stop gloating. Ever. As you can tell.

Highly Unlikely

Missouri finds itself in some trouble during the second half of their game against Texas Tech.  It seems Tommy Tuberville finally has things working on both offense and defense as the Red Raiders hold a 10-6 lead midway through the third quarter.  It's Missouri ball when Blaine Gabbert finally has the Missouri offense moving for the first time all day.  Then, facing a first and 10 at the Tech 17-yard line, a blitzing linebacker comes free on Gabbert's blindside and levels him. Gabbert coughs up the ball, it's scooped up by the Raiders, and taken back for a touchdown.  Gabbert gets happy feet for the rest of the game, short-arms every pass at his receivers' feet, and Mizzou never recovers.  Texas Tech goes on to win 20-13. -- Tom Fornelli

Severely Unlikely

Hawaii, feeling unusually frisky after beating Army and thumping Fresno State and Utah State all on the mainland, comes out for their game at Boise State wearing black leather Mad Max-inspired "(Road) Warriors" uniforms, complete with body armor and small spikes on their helmets. As a result, their pregame haka comes across as even more threatening and unnerving than usual, and the rattled Broncos wind up mostly standing around and watching as Bryant Moniz and Greg Salas connect for four first-half touchdowns and a 28-10 (Road) Warrior lead. Unfortunately, at halftime the officials convene and after a close perusal of the rulebook, declare Hawaii's uniforms totally illegal. The (Road) Warriors are told to either change uniforms or forfeit the game. They opt to simply go without uniforms, taking the field in pads, shirts, shorts, and cleats. The Broncos, unfortunately (for them), are nearly as unnerved by this as the Mad Max look, and fall behind 42-13 before a furious rally falls short, 42-41, handing Boise their first loss on the blue turf since, somewhat ironically, the last year Mel Gibson was considered cool. -- Jerry Hinnen

Well That's Just Absurd

Illinois storms into the Big House and Ron Zook continues his Zooker Redemption Tour with a 45-10 shellacking of the Michigan Wolverines. A wearied Rich Rodriguez answers a few questions at his post-game news conference before a familiar face stands up to ask a question. Why, it's Michigan athletic director David Brandon! Much to the annoyance of the collected media personnel, Brandon lobs a softball by asking Rodriguez to comment on his recent exoneration by the NCAA, which RichRod dutifully answers with the usual vague but positive coachspeak. At that point, Brandon responds that he doesn't actually care about the report, and that Rodriguez is fired, effective as of five minutes ago. RichRod exhales for the first time in three years. Defensive coordinator Greg Robinson is installed as interim head coach, but only so Brandon can have the pleasure of firing a coach and his successor in the same day; Robinson's tenure at Michigan ends seconds after it begins. Brandon then announces Jim Harbaugh as the next Michigan football head coach ... which comes as a total surprise to Harbaugh, who must then face the awkward task of declining the offer on account of his Stanford team's season not being even close to over. USC coach Lane Kiffin volunteers for the job instead, surprising nobody, and promises at his hiring the next day to "stay in North Arbor for years. That's what the 'N' in 'N. Arbor' means, right? North?" Michigan fans strain to avoid crying in public. -- Adam Jacobi

Posted by Tom Fornelli

The Saturday Meal Plan is a helpful guide put together for you to maximize the results of your college football diet.  Just enough to leave you feeling full, but not so much you spend your entire Sunday in the bathroom.

Breakfast

Main Course - #19 Oklahoma State vs. #22 Baylor - 12:30pm - FSN

I don't believe it.  After weeks of barren morning slate after barren morning slate, we actually get a matchup of two ranked teams this Saturday morning.  Surely my complaints have finally been heard and answered by the college football gods.

Granted, a game between Baylor and Oklahoma State doesn't usually carry such cache, but this should turn out to be a very fun way to start your Saturday, and chock full of calories otherwise known as points.  Just do the math.

Both teams have high-powered offenses ranked in the top ten nationally, and both teams have defenses ranked in the lower third of the country.  Which means it's going to look like a tennis match watching Robert Griffin and Brandon Weeden lead their teams back-and-forth down the field.  If the prospect of possibly seeing 100 points scored doesn't do it for you, then I just don't know what I can do for you.

Side Orders: There's quite a bit of mediocre Big Ten fare on Saturday morning as the conference's power teams beat up on the nerds and goth kids, but one Big Ten game that may deserve your attention is Michigan and Illinois.   The Illini are one of those teams that is a lot better than you think they are, as they're 5-3 and all three of those losses have been close contests against teams currently ranked in the top 15.  Though I suppose you might want to tune in to see Florida destroy Vanderbilt, or see how much money Chattanooga offers Cam Newton to stop running over them.

Lunch

Main Course -#6 Utah vs. #4 TCU - 3:30pm - CBS College Sports

For years, many a college football fan has clamored for a playoff to determine the national championship.  We're not exactly close to getting one, but if ever there was a game that may as well be considered a playoff game, this is it.  Oh, and it also features two teams who happen to be ranked in the top 5 in the BCS right now.

Those games don't come along very often in the regular season.

Whichever team wins this game basically assures itself a BCS bid, and strengthens its case to play for the title once the year is over.  Plus, considering that Utah is bound for the Pac-12 and TCU may be heading east, this may be the last time we get to see these "mid-majors" square off during the regular season.

So take the time on Saturday to figure out where CBS College Sports is on your cable system and enjoy this one.

Side Orders: Now you all have CBS, so if you're not into that whole Mountain West thing, you could always turn to the mothership and watch Alabama take on LSU.   The winner remains alive for the SEC title, and the loser is done.  Oh, and you can watch the game while chatting with yours truly over on our Facebook page.   Football and Tom Fornelli making smart-assed remarks to your honest questions?  What gets better than that?  Certainly not Oregon disemboweling a Jake Locker-less Washington team, or Penn State and Northwestern duking it out for fourth place in the Big Ten.

Dinner

Main Course - #10 Stanford vs. #13 Arizona - 8pm - ABC

Stanford's chances to win the Pac-10 are somewhat slim at this point considering its already a game behind Oregon, and that its sole conference loss is to Oregon, but hopes are not dead yet.  However, if they lose to Arizona on Saturday night they are.  The same can be said for the Wildcats, who trail Oregon by a game as well but still get to travel to Eugene at the end of the month. 

If Arizona loses this one, it's in the same boat as Stanford, and we may as well crown the Ducks champions on Sunday morning.

The good news for Arizona is that it won't need to rely on its backup quarterback as Nick Foles is expected to return, which means we get a matchup of two of the best quarterbacks in the Pac-10 as Foles squares off with Andrew "Jim Harbaugh's Other Wife" Luck.

Side Orders: There are some other nice choices on Saturday night if you prefer to try something else.  South Carolina looks to keep its lead in the SEC East against the cannon of Ryan Mallett and Arkansas.   Missouri will also look to keep its BCS hopes alive when it travels to Texas Tech, and I suppose you could tune in to see if Texas can lose yet again against Kansas State.

Late Night Snack

Not much to dine on late this week, though if you're desperate for more football at the end of the night, you can tune in to see if Lane Kiffin can distract Matt Barkley a few more times against Arizona State.   If nothing else, you might get some awesome Ace of Base action, and who doesn't want more Ace of Base in their beautiful life?

Posted by Tom Fornelli

Nebraska quarterback Taylor Martinez suffered an ankle injury during the Cornhuskers win over Missouri last week, and though the injury forced him to miss practice on Monday, Martinez practiced throughout the rest of the week.  Which would lead you to believe that Martinez will be ready to play when Nebraska takes on Iowa State this weekend in a game that means a lot more than most of us would have thought when the year began.

That may not be the case, though.  According to Bo Pelini, Martinez is getting better, but whether he plays or not will be a game time decision.

"He's getting better each day," Pelini told Husker Extra. "It will be probably a game-time decision, but he's getting better every day."

Which, in my opinion, means that Martinez will be starting for Nebraska on Saturday.  This is a very big game for Nebraska, because a loss against Iowa State would completely render last week's victory against Mizzou meaningless, and give Missouri the inside track to the Big 12 title game.  It would also drop the Cornhuskers to third in the division, as they'd have the same record as Iowa State, but would lose the tie-breaker.

So, in other words, Nebraska has to win this game or its chances of winning the Big 12 are done.  Considering what Iowa State did to Texas in Austin a few weeks ago, it's apparent that this is not a Cyclones team to take for granted, so unless Martinez is incapable of walking on Saturday morning, he'll be playing.

Posted by Chip Patterson

Texas Tech head coach Tommy Tuberville will be looking for any kind of competitive advantage against No. 12 Missouri on Saturday night in Lubbock.  The Tigers will come in hungry after having their undefeated season spoiled at the hands of a 31-17 loss to Nebraska a week ago.  Tuberville has re-opened the quarterback competition between Taylor Potts and Steven Sheffield this week in practice, and he has decided the starter will not be announced until just before kickoff in Jones AT&T Stadium.  

Tuberville said after practice on Wednesday that while he will not announce who gets the start, fans can expect to see both quarterbacks against the Tigers.  He also reiterated that he believes the decision will not give the Red Raiders a competitive advantage against the Missouri defense.

"It's the same offense," Tuberville said. "It's like last week when we went into that game and it didn't really make any difference. (Texas A&M) ran the same offense with (Ryan) Tannehill that they did with the other guy. You can't make a lot of changes but you can put one or two things in."

It has not been the easiest first year for Tuberville in Lubbock.  Known for his tenacious defenses in his time at Auburn, Tuberville has to be frustrated with a defensive unit that ranks 113 in the nation in total defense - giving up 449.5 yards per game.  Missouri's offense was thwarted by Nebraska's defense, but will likely have no problem getting back in rhythm against the Red Raiders.  In order for Tech to have a chance, they will need (insert QB name here) to get the ball down the field to keep up with Blaine Gabbert and the Tigers. 

Posted by Tom Fornelli

1. Nebraska will be playing for the Big 12 title. Forget about that loss to Texas at home a few weeks ago, unlike the Longhorns, the Cornhuskers will be back in Dallas for the Big 12 title game this season.  Its last in the conference. I just don't see a team left on the schedule that can knock off the Cornhuskers, especially if they play the way they did against Missouri on Saturday afternoon.  Speaking of the Tigers....

2. Missouri isn't quite ready for primetime. It's one thing to beat Oklahoma at home, which was a huge win for Missouri last week, but going on the road with the Big 12 North on the line is a completely different animal.  The Tigers got blown out of the water early by Roy Helu Jr, and just couldn't recover.  Still, just because I don't think it's going to happen doesn't mean it won't.  Missouri needs to shake this loss off because if they win out they are still alive for the conference championship and a BCS bowl.

3. Mike Sherman needs to listen to me sooner.   A few weeks ago I told him to bench Jerrod Johnson.   He didn't.  Now, this week, he finally handed the keys to the station wagon over to Ryan Tannehill, and Tannehill returned home with a Maserati and a full tank of gas.  Tannehill set a Texas A&M record with 449 yards passing and 4 touchdowns in the Aggies 45-27 rout of Texas Tech.

4. Things actually can get worse for Texas. What's worse than losing two straight home games to UCLA and Iowa State?   Losing three straight home games to UCLA, Iowa State and Baylor. It's the first time Texas has lost to Baylor since 1997, and the first time its lost at home to the Bears since 1991.  All of which means Baylor gets to spend another week atop the Big 12 south.  I only wish that the now-defunct Baylor blog, Bear Meat , were still around to see this.  Since they aren't, however, we share this video in their honor.

Posted by Jerry Hinnen

Michigan State and Missouri might have entered this weekend undefeated and ranked in the top 6, but you couldn't say they were getting a whole lot of respect; according to Vegas both were decisive road underdogs, against Iowa and Nebraska respectively, and both stayed ranked behind known non-AQ quantities Boise State and TCU. The near-universal consensus seemed to be that the Spartans and Tigers had enjoyed a nice run, but that it was over.

That consensus has thus far been proven even more correct than even the most skeptical skeptics could have imagined. Missouri has given up two long Roy Helu Jr. touchdown runs, seen Blaine Gabbert start 3-of-11 with an interception, and trail 24-0 at the end of the first quarter. Michigan State has been a little more respectable, but only just: Iowa opened the game with a dominating 12-play, 80-yard touchdown drive, and increased their lead to 17-0 when Tyler Sash picked off a wayward Kirk Cousins pass and lateraled to Micah Hyde for the defensive touchdown.

So, as of this moment, it's Homestanding Agents of BCS Chaos a collective 41, Undefeated Conference Front-runners 0. Sometimes, unfortunately, the haters have a point.