Counting down to LSU-Alabama with a daily dose of analysis and news.

DAYS REMAINING TO KICKOFF: 4, or the number of special teams and defensive touchdowns scored this season by LSU: two fumble returns for scores by Tyrann Mathieu, a kickoff return by Morris Claiborne, and pick-six by Ron Brooks. The Tide have three: a Marquis Maze punt return, and pick-sixes by Courtney Upshaw and DeQuan Menzie. Also the number worn (as you can see) by Tide All-American safety Mark Barron, who (despite our raving about the Alabama linebackers yesterday) leads the Tide defense in solo tackles with 25.
QUESTION OF THE DAY: We know both these teams can run the ball. But which one does it better?
You might be surprised just how decisively the statistics will tell you that answer is "Alabama." Yes, the Bayou Bengals have an out-and-out stud carrying the ball in Spencer Ware, a veteran offensive line loaded with former blue-chips playing its best football in years, solid backups in Alfred Blue and Michael Ford (not to mention bruising freshman fullback Kenny Hilliard, who collected 65 yards and two touchdowns vs. Auburn), and a successful vertical passing game to keep defenses honest. But it hasn't added up to statistical dominance just yet: the Tigers rank a respectable-but-not-spectacular 31st in rushing offense, but a downright middle-of-the-pack 55th in yards per-carry. Ware's 73 yards per-game rank him 66th in the country, sandwiched between Nevada's Cody Fajardo and USF's Darrell Scott.
The Tide, meanwhile, have the numbers to back up Trent Richardson and Co.'s reputation: 14th nationally in rushing yards, but sixth in yards per-carry at 5.84 an attempt and fourth in touchdowns with 27. Richardson ranks seventh at 123 yards per-game, third in touchdowns, and first in yards per-carry (6.64) among backs with more than 125 attempts. And given that backups Eddie Lacy and Jalston Fowler are averaging a fairly ridiculous 7.6 yards per-carry between them, it's not just the Heisman candidate guy; Barrett Jones and the rest of the Alabama offensive line are, as the kids say, bringing the wood.
So would we agree with the numbers that this is that major an edge for the Tide? Not in the slightest, for two reasons:
1. LSU's stats are being dragged down by an usually slow start to the season; through their first five weeks, the Tigers were averaging just 3.96 yards per attempt despite facing the likes of Kentucky and FCS Northwestern State. That's changed in a big
way over their past three games, with the Tigers gashing Florida, Tennessee and Auburn to the tune of 216 yards per game and 4.8 yards per-carry. That 4.8 is even more impressive when you consider ...2. the Tigers simply don't get huge gains on the ground. The Tigers have just one run of 30 yards or more this season, tying them for the lowest mark in the SEC. 20 yards or more? They're still ninth, and those numbers are despite attempting the second-most runs in the league.
The Tide, by contrast, already have 12 30-plus yard runs; only four teams nationally have more, and two of them are option squads. When comparing the two sides, yes, it's fair to say that Richardon's explosiveness and LSU's confirmed lack of an out-and-out breakway threat make the Tide more likely to bust a long one.
But how likely is one of those long ones? Given the quality of both teams' secondaries in run support, not all that likely. Which running game gets the upper hand is going to come down to which team can slug forward for four, five, six yards at a time, which line can create just the slightest creases for their backs, which backs can consistently wriggle and drive for the extra yard here and there.
No one in the SEC -- not even Alabama -- does those things better than a focused Ware and the Tigers. We still have to give the Tide's ground game the slimmest of edges due to Richardson's extraordinary ability and the higher likelihood of a big gainer ... but in a game like this one, we do mean "slimmest."
THE LATEST FROM BATON ROUGE: Judging from his Twitter feed, Mathieu already plays with a decent-size chip on his shoulder. So we're curious to see how he responds to being snubbed from the list of 15 semifinalists for the Jim Thorpe Award, announced Monday. The Thorpe is given annually to the nation's best defensive back, and while all 15 are worthy candidates, it's hard to see how Mathieu isn't one of them ... unless the Thorpe organization is punishing him for his recent drug-related suspension. Fair or not, we wonder if a big day Saturday won't result in some Thorpe-related chirping from Mathieu in the near future.Speaking of chirping, remember when Claiborne said he'd go for Richardson's legs if asked to tackle him one-on-one? Ryan Baker doesn't sound quite so impressed:
"Oh yeah, I can tackle him. I can tackle anybody in the country," Baker said of Richardson. "Don't need any help."Wonder if Mr. Richardson will make any note of that. Other LSU defenders, for what it's worth, were not quite so brash. (For more from Baker, check out this well-done brief interview clip from the SEC Digital Network.)
If anyone ever decides to make another Australian fish-out-of-water comedy, we'd suggest they start with the story of LSU punter Brad Wing. Not only did Wing express bemusement at the exorbitant sums now being requested for tickets to the game in which his punting could make a dramatic difference -- "I think a Grand Final ticket in Australia might be 200 bucks. That’s crazy" -- but he's also getting a quick education in the history of the game he's stumbled into. Asked about Bear Bryant, Wing responded that the name "sounds familiar" before asking "Should I know [him]?"
Actually, Brad, it's more funny if you don't.
VIDEO BREAK: CBSSports.com's Tony Barnhart appears on the Tim Brando Show to preview the game:
THE LATEST FROM TUSCALOOSA: Taking cues from their head coach, the Tide players have been admirably steadfast in their refusal to say anything other than boilerplate one-game-at-a-time-LSU's-a-great-team comments to reporters. Examples from Monday: "We want to win every game, and LSU is the next team standing in our way, but I wouldn’t say ‘revenge'"; "They have a great defense. They also have a great offense, and we have a great offense and a great offense. It’s just about going out there and playing at our standards and not anybody else’s standards"; "I pay no attention to who the (LSU) coaches play (at quarterback). Having other factors at play just kind of throws us off, and we don’t want that to happen."
Richardson also had praise for the Tiger defense, saying they "don’t back down for anyone. They are going to come for me." But he also admitted that the game is hugely important to him personally--not just because of the stakes involved, but because he wasn't able to help prevent last year's defeat in Baton Rouge.
"I tore an abdominal muscle and I had a slightly torn MCL," he said. "This game means a lot to me, because I didn't get to play in it last year except for about one quarter. So I really can't wait to showcase what a healthy Trent can do in this game."
There's a lot of people, we would guess, that would love to see what a healthy Trent can do in this game. As for what his coach might do, we wrote Sunday that we shouldn't be too shocked if Nick Saban defies his reputation and pulls a trick out of the bag. So we were intrigued to find out that former Tide player and current Houston Texan DeMeco Ryans told the Sporting News that he wouldn't be surprised, either:"I think the X factor could be a trick play. If you look at coach (Nick) Saban's history, he's got some tricks up his sleeve. I could see him calling a fake punt or an option pass or something like that to break open a close game. He's known for doing that. I hate to admit it, but when I played, he got me on one (fake punt) of those (when Saban was at LSU). As a defensive player or a special teams player, you've got to be aware of the possibility, but you can't let it affect your aggressiveness."Ryans was one of four current NFL players and LSU/Bama program alums to offer their take on the game; you'll be shocked, shocked to learn that all four picked their former teams to win the game.






1. LSU: The Tigers hold steady at the top of the BCS standings after their first off-week of the season. SEC partisans hoping for a rematch between the combatants in this week's Game to End All Games will be rooting for Alabama; thanks to LSU's top-notch nonconference schedule giving them a computer boost, their pre-loaded positioning at the No. 1 team in the country and -- most importantly -- that they're forced to play the Crimson Tide on the road, they loom as much more likely to leap back into the BCS top two following a loss Saturday than their Tuscaloosa counterparts. -
2. Alabama: No change this week for the Crimson Tide, either, as they stay in the No. 2 spot following a bye of their own. But we doubt the Tide minds all that much. For one thing, they know they don't have to worry about ascending to the top spot if they come out victorious this week; Oklahoma State already has the best computer rankings in the formula and still isn't within real striking distance of the top two. They have no chance of leapfrogging the LSU-Alabama winner as long as that team stays perfect. For another, the No. 2 slot has some nice precedent for Alabama--that's where they stayed in the BCS standings throughout the 2009 season, too, behind Florida ... until smashing the Gators personally and going on to win the national title. Is their a repeat in the cards for 2011? - JH
3. Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State currently sits in the best position amongst anybody to climb into the top two next week. With Alabama and LSU playing on Saturday, somebody is going to move into that second spot, and the Cowboys will be that team if they beat Kansas State. If Oklahoma State can get through its final four games without a setback, then it's the favorite to be playing for a national title. Of course, getting through those games is a lot easier said than done. -
4. Stanford: The Cardinal got their toughest test of the season on Saturday night, but they were able to knock off USC and remain unbeaten. Aside from Oregon, I don't see much of a threat for Stanford remaining in the Pac-12. Maybe, and I mean maaaaybe, Notre Dame can get to them, but if Stanford gets by Oregon I don't see a loss on the schedule. Stanford is a very real threat to get to New Orleans. - TF
5. Boise State: Good news for Boise State: Clemson took a loss and is out of the way! Not good news: Stanford has passed the Broncos after a 3-OT win over USC on Saturday, so Boise's still stuck at 5. Still, of the top five teams, the Broncos have the lowest probability of sustaining a loss from here on out in the regular season, so it's likely that Boise's not finished rising up the standings -- even if going undefeated may, once again, not be enough to satisfy the BCS. -
6. Oklahoma: It's not the same as being in the top three, but Oklahoma climbs back up to six following a big win over Kansas State. The Sooners are still very much a darkhorse to play for the BCS title this January as a one-loss team, with games against Texas A&M and Oklahoma State still on the schedule. They also don't have a conference championship to get through, so if the Sooners can win out, they're going to climb even further. - TF
7. Arkansas: You might expect the third-best team in the SEC to be entirely deserving of the No. 7 spot in the FBS. But the Hogs haven't come close to playing the part the past two weeks, struggling at hapless Ole Miss and getting straight-up outplayed on the road at Vanderbilt last Saturday. Thanks to Tyler Wilson the Razorbacks have the offensive horses to play with anyone, and their season-ending visit to LSU still has the potential to turn the entire college football season on its head. But after yielding 462 yards (and 6.6 per play) to the previously low-fi Commodore offense, it's hard to see the Hog defense getting nearly enough stops to challenge the Tigers. - JH
8. Oregon: Oregon's hanging tough at No. 8, and that's fine, but it's going to take multiple quantum leaps for the Ducks to get into the national championship conversation. Step 1 is obviously a win over Stanford in two weeks, but even if they pull that off, it's going to take a LOT of help for Oregon to get any higher than fourth or fifth. The secondary's going to get tested over the next few weeks with games against Keith Price, Matt Barkley, and of course Andrew Luck. No pressure, Ducks. - AJ
9. South Carolina: The Gamecocks benefit from the losses of both Kansas State and Clemson this week by climbing into the top ten of the BCS, but is this really a team we can expect to be here much longer? Take away a 54-3 blowout of Kentucky, and this is an offense that's been struggling to score points for over a month now, and Marcus Lattimore is out for the season. Add in a road game against Arkansas this weekend and Clemson at the end of the season, and I don't like South Carolina's odds. - TF
10. Nebraska: A few weeks ago, it didn't seem like Nebraska was ever going to be the top team in the Big Ten this season; the Huskers were sorely lacking in big wins, while Wisconsin and Michigan looked like the class of each division. How quickly circumstances change, however, and now the Big Ten's only representation in the Top 12 of automatic bids is Big Red. The real fun for Nebraska begins on November 12, when the Huskers travel to Penn State and follow that up with a road date at Michigan. Two wins, and Nebraska's got a case for being a Top 5 team. Another loss, and it's back to chaos in the Big Ten. - AJ
WINNER: Vanderbilt. We know, we know, they lost. But they also outgained the nation's No. 8 team (and one of its most explosive offenses) by 74 yards. Their years of wandering the wilderness at the quarterback position appears over, thanks to Jordan Rodgers' outstanding 15-of-27, 240 yard, 66 rushing yards, 3 touchdown, zero turnovers performance. They took over down 3 at their own 9 with 3 minutes remaining, a situation in which Vandy has accomplished nothing since the days of Jay Cutler, and promptly drove 80 yards for what should have been the game-tying field goal. Top-to-bottom, Vanderbilt was a better team than Arkansas Saturday.
their own touchdown and (for all intents and purposes) the win. Gibson's play won't make him a star, but Saturday, there's no question it made him a winner.
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SURPRISE: Auburn. Few SEC teams have legitimately exceeded expectations in 2011 -- LSU and Vandy are the only other two, frankly -- but none has been as big a shock as the Tigers, who had been predicted by many to sink to fifth (or worse) in the West and general irrelevancy in Year One A.C. (i.e., after Cam). But despite being a Vegas underdog in all four of their SEC games (and scoring 20 points or fewer in their most recent three), a newly-energized defense and timely plays on offense and special teams have Auburn sitting at 3-1 in the league and 5-2 overall. If Miles's and Saban's teams hadn't run so far away from the pack, Gene Chizik would be a hot favorite for SEC Coach of the Year.